UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno – MMA Betting & DFS Preview

December 12, 2020

9 minutes read

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno

#UFC256 MMA Betting Preview

The flyweights take center stage yet again this week as the UFC has us set up with yet another great card Saturday night live from Las Vegas for UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno.

After defending his belt less than a month ago, Figueiredo headlines the card and will square off with No. 1 ranked Brandon Moreno, who returns after a quick win just three weeks ago as well.

Expect some fireworks in the co-main event as well, as it includes the uber-popular Tony Ferguson, who looks to get back on track towards title contention, facing submission machine Charles Oliveira, who’s riding a seven-fight winning streak coming into this one.

This week’s card is slated for 10 bouts, with only two of the fights projected to go the distance, making no doubt a night of very exciting fights as we inch closer to wrapping a very challenging 2020 for the sports world. The event kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET live on ESPN for the prelims, followed up with the main card on Pay Per View, beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET.

UFC 256 DETAILS

DATE: SATURDAY 12/12/2020
BROADCAST: Pay Per View – Prelims: ESPN
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 10

UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY

MAIN CARD

FLYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT 125LBS

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

#3 TONY FERGUSON 25-4 VS #7 CHARLES OLIVEIRA 29-8

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

RENATO MOICANO 14-3-1 VS RAFAEL FIZIEV 8-1

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

#15 KEVIN HOLLAND 20-5 VS RONALDO SOUZA 26-8

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS

#7 JUNIOR DOS SANTOS 21-8 VS #14 CIRYL GANE 6-0

PRELIMS

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

CUB SWANSON 26-11 VS DANIEL PINEDA 27-13

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS

#11 MACKENZIE DERN 9-1 VS #13 VIRNA JANDIROBA 16-1

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

GAVIN TUCKER 12-1 VS BILLY QUARANTILLO 15-2

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS

#10 TECIA TORRES 11-5 VS SAM HUGHES 5-1

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

CHASE HOOPER 9-1-1 VS PETER BARRETT 11-4

MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

(C) DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO 20-1 VS #1 BRANDON MORENO 18-5-1

With a win Saturday night, Figueiredo sets himself up and the frontrunner for the fighter of the year. It would make four wins in the calendar year, including his win for the flyweight title, followed by two title defenses. Looking to put a halt to those plans stands Brandon Moreno. He won on the undercard of Figueiredo’s last title defense a short three weeks ago, as he defeated Brandon Royval when the fight was waved off after a freak shoulder injury in the very first round. Moreno is a game challenger, and with both men having high finish rates and neither ever been finished themselves, we are set up for a solid main event yet again courtesy of the flyweights.

Figueiredo will now headline his second UFC pay per view in a row after submitting Alex Perez in less than two minutes, which cashed our +500 prop position three weeks ago, closing out the card.

So who wins?

The champ is the rightful 3:1 favorite here, and with already 17 of his 20 wins coming by way of finish, he quite possibly could hand Moreno the first loss inside the distance as well. Figueiredo expects to enter the cage Saturday night around 143lbs, 18 pounds over the weigh-in limit. The quick turnaround will benefit the champ, as he stayed in town and kept close to weight, eliminating the usual weight cut he puts his body through.

Moreno is known as a wild striker, throwing looping haymakers as he moves forward on his foe. His accuracy is very low and sits at just a 35% success rate, and facing a technical counter striker with massive power like Figueiredo. It will pose some problems for the challenger, and early. In his last fight, Moreno’s win came via TKO by strikes, but it was after an arm injury that hurt Royval, which occurred as the two scrambled and traded submission advantages. Before the predicament Royval got caught up in, Moreno had eaten a few shots upstairs as he usually does in his fights. Though we only saw one round of fight sample there, it matched what we’ve seen time after time from a defensive perspective from the challenger and further validates Figueiredo as the right side in this fight. Moreno won’t have many paths to victory, in my opinion. He’ll need to try and get this one to the mat, as the stand up favors the much more superior striker in Figueiredo. As the fight goes on and Moreno continues to struggle against the champ, I expect him to look to take it down more and more along the way, unsuccessfully. Moreno is in a tough situation here, and though he will have a better showing than Alex Perez did, it won’t be enough to defeat the champ.

PREDICTION: FIGUEIREDO (look via ITD -159)

MAIN CARD WAGERS

FLYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT 125LBS: (C) DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO 20-1 VS #1 BRANDON MORENO 18-5-1

Neither fighter has ever been finished.
Moreno has gone to a decision in 5 of his last 7.
Moreno will have a height and reach advantage by 2 inches.
Moreno has won 4 of 5 fights as an underdog.
Striking volume and differential are very similar, though the champ is the much more accurate striker landing 55% compared to 35%.
BET: FIGUEIREDO (look via ITD -159)

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: #3 TONY FERGUSON 25-4 VS #7 CHARLES OLIVEIRA 29-8

Oliveira is riding a 7-fight win streak, while Ferguson is 12-1 in his last 13 fights.
Win or lose, Oliveira’s last 14 fights have finished inside the distance. (10-4)
Though 29-8 overall, Oliveira is 17-8 in the UFC. (Ferguson 15-2)
Ferguson will have the edge on the feet, while Oliveira will look to
Oliveira has won his last 6 fights when he’s been able to outstrike his opponent. In 6 of his 8 losses, he was outstruck, even with takedowns. Ferguson lands 5.80 significant strikes per minute in comparison to Oliveira’s 3.27 coming into this one.
Fight is on 20 days’ notice.
BET: FERGUSON -150 (look via ITD +145)

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: RENATO MOICANO 14-3-1 VS RAFAEL FIZIEV 8-1

Fiziev averages 4.61 strikes landed per minute in comparison to Moicano at 1.46.
Half of Moicano’s wins are via submission, including his last 2. In 9 fights, Fiziev has never lost via sub.
Win or lose, 6 of Fiziev’s 9 fights have ended in the 1st round.
This will be Moicano’s second fight at this weight. (1-0)
Moicano’s last three losses are against the Korean Zombie, Aldo, and Ortega. He should be a live dog.
This is the first fight for Fiziev in the U.S.
After three fights in the UFC, Fiziev still has a 100% takedown defense.
BET: MOICANO +130

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: #15 KEVIN HOLLAND 20-5 VS RONALDO SOUZA 26-8

Talk about momentum heading into this one. Holland is 4-0 in 2020, while Souza is just 2-4 in his last 6 fights.
Holland will have a significant 9-inch reach advantage.
Holland is 13 years younger than the 41-year-old Souza.
Three of Souza’s last 5 losses have been split decisions against Hermansson, Gastelum, and the current light heavyweight champ Blachowicz.
Souza’s path to victory will be on the mat, but don’t get caught speeding as Holland is a BJJ black belt.
Souza is making the return to 185 after his last fight (loss) at 205.
BET: **If Holland hits plus money, I will play him.

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: #7 JUNIOR DOS SANTOS 21-8 VS #14 CIRYL GANE 6-0

For the first time in his career, JDS is riding a 3 fight losing streak. He’s been TKO’d in all three of those fights.
Gane is 6-0 and has won via finish in 5 of those fights.
Gane has the edge in all striking and grappling statistics.
Gane will have a 4-inch reach advantage.
JDS gets knocked down .48 times per 15 mins, while Gane averages .44 KDs per fight.
JDS hasn’t landed a takedown in his last 9 fights and has preferred standing, which could be trouble against the more active Gane, who also has a 73% striking defense rate.
BET: JDS/GANE O1.5 RDS -130

PRELIMS WAGERS

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: CUB SWANSON 26-11 VS DANIEL PINEDA 27-13

Swanson is just 1-4 in his last 5 fights. It pains me to say he is on this run since becoming a father. His one win is against a guy with limited stand-up.
All 27 of Pineda’s wins have come inside the distance (9 KOs, 18 SUBs)
Pineda’s last 9 fights have ended under 2.5 rounds.
Three of Swanson’s most recent losses come against fighters with strong submission skill sets. Pineda has won via sub in 67% of his victories (18/27)
BET: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE: NO -125

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS: #11 MACKENZIE DERN 9-1 VS #13 VIRNA JANDIROBA 16-1

Neither fighter has ever been finished, while both are submission machines. Nineteen of their combined 25 fights have come by way of sub.
Dern has won via submission on 6 occasions. 5 have come in the very first round.
Jandiroba thrives on facing opponents who can’t match her on the mat. Dern definitely can, and Dern also lands three times the strikes on the feet than Jandiroba.
Dern has a 0% takedown defense, and her only UFC loss is against Amanda Ribas, who landed 2 against her, while all other opponents have avoided taking the fight to the mat against her.
Jandiroba has landed one or more takedowns in all three of her UFC fights. She’s also never been submitted in 17 fights.

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: GAVIN TUCKER 12-1 VS BILLY QUARANTILLO 15-2

Quarantillo is now riding an 8 fight winning streak.
Tucker has yet to be finished in 13 fights.
Tucker’s last 4 fights have gone into the 3rd round. Quarantillo’s last 5 fights have all gone late into the 2nd round or longer.
Tucker gets knocked down .55 times per 15 min. while Quarantillo KDs his opponents .45 per fight
Quarantillo throws at a 71% accuracy and lands 7.51 significant strikes per minute.
BET: QUARANTILLO: -144

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS: #10 TECIA TORRES 11-5 VS SAM HUGHES 5-1

Hughes is making her UFC debut on just four days’ notice, replacing Angela Hill, who withdrew due to covid.
Torres has only one finish and has gone to a decision in 15 of her 16 fights.
Hughes is 0-1 at this weight and lost her one fight at 115 via submission. She typically fights up at 125. With only four days’ notice, the weight cut will be a close watch.

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: CHASE HOOPER 9-1-1 VS PETER BARRETT 11-4

After losing decisively in his last fight against Caceres, Hooper has moved gyms and has been training with Ryan Hall and Cory Sandhagen.
Barrett is 0-1 in the UFC and just 3-4 in his last 7.
Hooper is just 1-1 against southpaws.

BET CONFIDENCE RANKING

FIGUEIREDO (look via ITD -159)
FERGUSON -150 (look via ITD +145)
QUARANTILLO: -144
JDS/GANE O1.5 RDS -130
MOICANO +130
CUB/PINEDA FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE: NO -125

FULL CARD PREDICTIONS

DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO defeats BRANDON MORENO
TONY FERGUSON defeats CHARLES OLIVEIRA
RENATO MOICANO defeats RAFAEL FIZIEV
KEVIN HOLLAND defeats RONALDO SOUZA
CIRYL GANE defeats JUNIOR DOS SANTOS
DANIEL PINEDA defeats CUB SWANSON
MACKENZIE DERN defeats VIRNA JANDIROBA
BILLY QUARANTILLO defeats GAVIN TUCKER
TECIA TORRES defeats SAM HUGHES
CHASE HOOPER defeats PETER BARRETT

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!

See all of the moneylines at DraftKings Sportsbook!

UFC 256 DFS Plays & Strategies

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 256. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here’s my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

UFC 256 DFS Recommendations

Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)

Fights projected to NOT go to a decision:

Ferguson/Oliveira -260
JDS/Gane -245
Figueiredo/Moreno -230
Hooper/Barrett -190
Moicano/Fiziev -130
Pineda/Swanson -125
Dern/Jandiroba -120
Holland/Souza -115

As usual, take a look at the main event with five rounds to score. I like the champ Figueiredo, and at $9k, he should hit value even with the price tag, just as he has in his last five fights.

Top-tier fighters to build around include Figueiredo, Gane

Mid-tier fighter considerations are Ferguson, Quarantillo, Pineda, Torres

Good luck everyone! I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.

UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno – MMA Betting & DFS Preview