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Australia will pip India to the post – and set up a final against New Zealand – if England win the fourth Test

The ten-wicket win, well inside two days, in the pink-ball Test in Ahmedabad has not only given India an unassailable 2-1 lead in the four-Test series, it’s given them a clear shot at qualifying for the inaugural World Test Championship final, to be played at Lord’s from June 18. The result in the third Test also means that it’s now a two-horse race to meet New Zealand in the final – Australia vs India – with England’s hopes lying in tatters.

The target for both India and England, before the series, was to top Australia’s points percentage of 69.17. England, having slipped to 64.1 after the latest reversal, cannot get there, but India can, unless England spoil their party in the final exchange.

What India need to do to reach the final

As things stand, India are actually ahead of New Zealand on points percentage. India have 71.0 (490 overall) compared to New Zealand’s 70.0 (420). In terms of the WTC final, India’s target, even before the series had started, was to earn 70 points – having come into the third Test with 30 points for a win and a loss, they needed to win the series 2-1 or 3-1.

They are now at 2-1, but…

What if India lose the final Test?

There, that’s the only way they can’t make the WTC final, which means that though they are out of the hunt themselves, Joe Root’s boys can be killjoys for Virat Kohli’s team, and make Tim Paine and Co very happy. A 2-1 (with a draw in the final Test) or 3-1 scoreline does the job for India, while 2-2, the only other possibility, isn’t good enough for them.

What about the possibility of points being docked…?

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