Fantasy hockey rankings Week 14 update

The margin for error here gets ever thinner. Working on a version of my fantasy points per game (FPPG) projections to suss out value in these “rest of season” rankings is getting a bit ugly. Because the game cuts off on May 13 and the NHL has extended the season beyond that due to the Vancouver Canucks extended layoff, the remaining games imbalance is being pushed to extreme levels.

The poor fantasy managers invested in the Calgary Flames can’t be pleased with the remaining schedule. The Flames only have five more games to count for fantasy. The Los Angeles Kings, Canucks, St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche, for example, have 10. Vince Dunn is more appealing than Mark Giordano under these circumstances, and it’s not that close.

Overall, I like to use a blended FPPG projection toward the end of the season, which is evenly weighted FPPG for the entire season averaged with the past month for each player. I then apply that FPPG average to the player’s remaining games. In the case of goaltenders I do a similar blending of crease share and fantasy points per 60 (FPP60) – both for the entire season with the past month – and it gives a similar projection for remaining points.

The reason I bring up how the sausage is made here is that the remaining projected points are very close among the top 250. From No. 1 to No. 250 for remaining projected fantasy points is only a difference of 20.9 fantasy points (31.8 to 10.9 fantasy points).

The difference from No. 100 to No. 250 is only 4.0 fantasy points (14.9 to 10.9 fantasy points). That’s just one good game to take a player from 250 to 100 in these rankings.

That is to say, really take these “rest of season” rankings for what they are: A best attempt at highlighting who is hot and has the schedule left to help your fantasy team.

Players to target

Braden Holtby, G, Vancouver Canucks (ranked No. 26): With the maximum 10 fantasy games left and Thatcher Demko on the mend, that would be enough to make Holtby a fantasy target. When you consider how strong he’s performed since the team returned to action, he becomes a top option. Even if Demko heals up quickly, Holtby’s output of late justifies a split of the action. And five games as a minimum benchmark is about as many as any goaltender can expect going forward. Holtby is on the free-agent list in 57% of leagues.

Mike Hoffman, W, St. Louis Blues (ranked No. 33): It sure has taken a while, but Hoffman is hitting a groove more reminiscent of what he’s done in previous seasons. Playing at even strength lately with Robert Thomas and Sammy Blais is good, but playing on the top power-play unit with David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly is great. Averaging more than 3.2 FPPG during his past six, Hoffman also gets the benefit of 10 remaining games. He’s still available in 22% of leagues.

Chandler Stephenson, C, Vegas Golden Knights (ranked No. 65): He’s been on the radar all season thanks to his sustained role as the pivot for Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, but Stephenson has managed to be next level in recent play. Going back 10 games, Stephenson has averaged 2.2 FPPG. He’s available in 71% of leagues.

Tyler Seguin, C, Dallas Stars (ranked No. 74): Eyeing a return sometime this week, even a shadow of Seguin will be fantasy relevant if he isn’t 100 percent of his usual self. It’s certainly debatable whether holding him on the IR all season for the final seven or eight games was worth it – probably not, given the IR stints we’ve seen in the league this season. But that was then and this is now. Seguin is available in 70% of ESPN leagues as a free agent.

Joonas Donskoi, W, Colorado Avalanche (ranked No. 84): Expected back from COVID protocol for the final 10 games of the season, Donskoi will likely slip back into his role as the fourth forward on the power play – as he was still succeeding in the job prior to missing time. That means plenty of ice time with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar on the man advantage. That said, any warm body placed on the ice with that foursome is going to produce and there’s no guarantee it’s Donskoi. Target whoever does get the role (Andre Burakovsky, J.T. Compher are possibilities).

Andrew Copp, C, Winnipeg Jets (ranked No. 121): With news that Nikolaj Ehlers is down for the remainder of the regular season, Copp gets locked into a top-six role going forward. He’s averaged 1.9 FPPG this season, and plenty of those games were spent outside the Jets scoring lines.

Nate Schmidt, D, Vancouver Canucks (ranked No. 128): A fantasy factor last season, Schmidt spent most of this season not getting enough fantasy points to be a part of plans. But his output has been better both before and after the Canucks COVID shutdown. During the past nine games (five before shutdown, four after), Schmidt has managed at least 1.1 fantasy points and averaged 1.6. That’s plenty to be a final defenseman on your roster – especially if you can use all 10 of his remaining fantasy games.

Marco Scandella, D, St. Louis Blues (ranked No. 157): He’s not getting enough points on average to be worth it, but for those who don’t need to sweat a maximum games played limit at a roster position (or are trending toward not reaching a threshold), use Scandella for quantity over quality. The 10 games remaining and his 1.4 FPPG during the past month put him in play over better defenseman on teams with fewer games.

Nathan Bastian, W, New Jersey Devils (ranked No. 176): Production is production. Do I think Miles Wood and Nathan Bastian on a line would be a fantasy factor on paper? Probably not. But Bastian leads all Devils with 1.9 FPPG during the past month – which is a rate more than adequate for fantasy production. The trades of Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac cleared up plenty of ice time for others, and Bastian is taking advantage.

Fantasy hockey top-250 rankings

1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Col (C1)
2. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (C2)
3. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Col (RW1)
4. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Col (LW1)
5. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
6. Brad Marchand, LW, Bos (LW2)
7. Alec Martinez, D, Vgs (D1)
8. Auston Matthews, C, Tor (C3)
9. Mike Smith, G, Edm (G2)
10. Cam Talbot, G, Min (G3)
11. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (LW3)
12. Juuse Saros, G, Nsh (G4)
13. Bo Horvat, C, Van (C4)
14. Cale Makar, D, Col (D2)
15. Darnell Nurse, D, Edm (D3)
16. Robin Lehner, G, Vgs (G5)
17. Ryan O’Reilly, C, StL (C5)
18. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bos (C6)
19. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D4)
20. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (LW4)
21. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (LW5)
22. Max Pacioretty, LW, Vgs (LW6)
23. Kevin Fiala, C, Min (C7)
24. Dougie Hamilton, D, Car (D5)
25. Vincent Trocheck, C, Car (C8)
26. Braden Holtby, G, Van (G6)
27. David Perron, RW, StL (RW2)
28. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D6)
29. Travis Hamonic, D, Van (D7)
30. Shea Theodore, D, Vgs (D8)
31. Artemi Panarin, LW, NYR (LW7)
32. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (C9)
33. Mike Hoffman, LW, StL (LW8)
34. Jack Campbell, G, Tor (G7)
35. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (C10)
36. Tyler Myers, D, Van (D9)
37. J.T. Miller, C, Van (C11)
38. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (RW3)
39. Mark Stone, RW, Vgs (RW4)
40. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chi (LW9)
41. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G8)
42. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D10)
43. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Vgs (G9)
44. Jakob Chychrun, D, Ari (D11)
45. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D12)
46. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (C12)
47. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (RW5)
48. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, StL (RW6)
49. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G10)
50. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D13)
51. Alexander Edler, D, Van (D14)
52. Sebastian Aho, C, Car (C13)
53. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Mon (RW7)
54. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (C14)
55. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgs (D15)
56. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (RW8)
57. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G11)
58. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (C15)
59. Mitch Marner, RW, Tor (RW9)
60. Devon Toews, D, Col (D16)
61. Tyson Barrie, D, Edm (D17)
62. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (LW10)
63. Vince Dunn, D, StL (D18)
64. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D19)
65. Chandler Stephenson, C, Vgs (C16)
66. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D20)
67. Justin Faulk, D, StL (D21)
68. Taylor Hall, LW, Bos (LW11)
69. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (RW10)
70. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (C17)
71. Torey Krug, D, StL (D22)
72. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D23)
73. John Tavares, C, Tor (C18)
74. Tyler Seguin, C, Dal (C19)
75. Aleksander Barkov, C, Fla (C20)
76. Dustin Brown, RW, LA (RW11)
77. Evander Kane, LW, SJ (LW12)
78. Mathew Dumba, D, Min (D24)
79. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (RW12)
80. Tristan Jarry, G, Pit (G12)
81. Jeff Petry, D, Mon (D25)
82. Esa Lindell, D, Dal (D26)
83. Tyler Motte, LW, Van (LW13)
84. Joonas Donskoi, RW, Col (RW13)
85. Jason Robertson, LW, Dal (LW14)
86. Tomas Hertl, C, SJ (C21)
87. Shea Weber, D, Mon (D27)
88. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (LW15)
89. Ryan Graves, D, Col (D28)
90. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (LW16)
91. Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Car (G13)
92. Ondrej Palat, LW, TB (LW17)
93. Bryan Rust, RW, Pit (RW14)
94. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Min (C22)
95. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D29)
96. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos (D30)
97. Adam Larsson, D, Edm (D31)
98. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgs (LW18)
99. Brayden Point, C, TB (C23)
100. Tuukka Rask, G, Bos (G14)
101. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D32)
102. Connor Brown, RW, Ott (RW15)
103. Josh Anderson, RW, Mon (RW16)
104. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (C24)
105. Samuel Girard, D, Col (D33)
106. Sean Couturier, C, Phi (C25)
107. Martin Necas, C, Car (C26)
108. Jordan Staal, C, Car (C27)
109. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Wsh (C28)
110. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D34)
111. Tanner Pearson, LW, Van (LW19)
112. Alex Goligoski, D, Ari (D35)
113. Joshua Norris, C, Ott (C29)
114. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, NYI (C30)
115. David Krejci, C, Bos (C31)
116. Mathew Barzal, C, NYI (C32)
117. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D36)
118. Nick Bonino, C, Min (C33)
119. Anthony Mantha, RW, Wsh (RW17)
120. Kris Letang, D, Pit (D37)
121. Andrew Copp, C, Wpg (C34)
122. Sam Reinhart, RW, Buf (RW18)
123. Alex Tuch, RW, Vgs (RW19)
124. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Min (RW20)
125. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (D38)
126. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D39)
127. Matt Grzelcyk, D, Bos (D40)
128. Nate Schmidt, D, Van (D41)
129. Alex Iafallo, LW, LA (LW20)
130. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (LW21)
131. Philipp Grubauer, G, Col (G15)
132. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Car (LW22)
133. Jared McCann, LW, Pit (LW23)
134. Jake Muzzin, D, Tor (D42)
135. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Wpg (G16)
136. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, NYR (RW21)
137. Brandon Montour, D, Fla (D43)
138. Jaden Schwartz, LW, StL (LW24)
139. Craig Smith, RW, Bos (RW22)
140. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (RW23)
141. Jeff Carter, C, Pit (C35)
142. Andreas Athanasiou, LW, LA (LW25)
143. Travis Zajac, C, NYI (C36)
144. Brandon Sutter, C, Van (C37)
145. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D44)
146. Nick Suzuki, C, Mon (C38)
147. Sammy Blais, LW, StL (LW26)
148. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D45)
149. Phil Kessel, RW, Ari (RW24)
150. John Klingberg, D, Dal (D46)
151. Andre Burakovsky, LW, Col (LW27)
152. Tyler Bozak, C, StL (C39)
153. Tomas Tatar, LW, Mon (LW28)
154. Drake Batherson, C, Ott (C40)
155. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (C41)
156. Jaccob Slavin, D, Car (D47)
157. Marco Scandella, D, StL (D48)
158. William Nylander, RW, Tor (RW25)
159. Timo Meier, RW, SJ (RW26)
160. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Fla (C42)
161. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D49)
162. Petr Mrazek, G, Car (G17)
163. Scott Mayfield, D, NYI (D50)
164. Dmitry Orlov, D, Wsh (D51)
165. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buf (D52)
166. William Karlsson, C, Vgs (C43)
167. Brett Pesce, D, Car (D53)
168. Jesper Bratt, RW, NJ (RW27)
169. Joel Edmundson, D, Mon (D54)
170. Neal Pionk, D, Wpg (D55)
171. Duncan Keith, D, Chi (D56)
172. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (RW28)
173. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Wsh (C44)
174. Miles Wood, LW, NJ (LW29)
175. Nick Ritchie, LW, Bos (LW30)
176. Nathan Bastian, RW, NJ (RW29)
177. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Phi (D57)
178. Jordan Eberle, RW, NYI (RW30)
179. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (LW31)
180. Brandon Saad, LW, Col (LW32)
181. Ryan Suter, D, Min (D58)
182. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Edm (RW31)
183. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D59)
184. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Car (RW32)
185. Anthony Beauvillier, LW, NYI (LW33)
186. Ryan Strome, C, NYR (C45)
187. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (LW34)
188. Ilya Samsonov, G, Wsh (G18)
189. Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Col (RW33)
190. Zach Parise, LW, Min (LW35)
191. Yanni Gourde, LW, TB (LW36)
192. Ryan Hartman, RW, Min (RW34)
193. Will Butcher, D, NJ (D60)
194. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D61)
195. Jakub Voracek, RW, Phi (RW35)
196. P.K. Subban, D, NJ (D62)
197. Logan Couture, C, SJ (C46)
198. David Savard, D, TB (D63)
199. Denis Gurianov, LW, Dal (LW37)
200. Pavel Zacha, C, NJ (C47)
201. Nico Hischier, C, NJ (C48)
202. Jakub Vrana, C, Det (C49)
203. Brian Dumoulin, D, Pit (D64)
204. Claude Giroux, LW, Phi (LW38)
205. Dominik Kubalik, LW, Chi (LW39)
206. Justin Schultz, D, Wsh (D65)
207. Mattias Janmark, LW, Vgs (LW40)
208. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (RW36)
209. Travis Sanheim, D, Phi (D66)
210. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D67)
211. Seth Jones, D, Cls (D68)
212. Brock Nelson, C, NYI (C50)
213. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI (G19)
214. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Fla (LW41)
215. Patric Hornqvist, RW, Fla (RW37)
216. Jordan Greenway, LW, Min (LW42)
217. Blake Coleman, LW, TB (LW43)
218. Pius Suter, C, Chi (C51)
219. Marcus Johansson, LW, Min (LW44)
220. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (C52)
221. Kailer Yamamoto, RW, Edm (RW38)
222. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (RW39)
223. Nazem Kadri, C, Col (C53)
224. Josh Manson, D, Ana (D69)
225. Christian Dvorak, LW, Ari (LW45)
226. Ryan Ellis, D, Nsh (D70)
227. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NYI (RW40)
228. Anton Khudobin, G, Dal (G20)
229. Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Nsh (LW46)
230. Phillip Danault, C, Mon (C54)
231. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buf (D71)
232. Nick Leddy, D, NYI (D72)
233. Erik Cernak, D, TB (D73)
234. Chris Driedger, G, Fla (G21)
235. Ben Chiarot, D, Mon (D74)
236. Brian Elliott, G, Phi (G22)
237. Mark Giordano, D, Cgy (D75)
238. Nikita Zaitsev, D, Ott (D76)
239. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (C55)
240. Corey Perry, RW, Mon (RW41)
241. Max Comtois, LW, Ana (LW47)
242. Morgan Rielly, D, Tor (D77)
243. Nick Schmaltz, C, Ari (C56)
244. Olli Maatta, D, LA (D78)
245. Conor Garland, RW, Ari (RW42)
246. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Pit (RW43)
247. Anthony Duclair, LW, Fla (LW48)
248. Joel Farabee, LW, Phi (LW49)
249. Nick Foligno, LW, Tor (LW50)
250. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Ari (D79)

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